{"source":"data/processed/repd_panel.csv.gz","latest_snapshot":"2026-05-06","panel_rows":103579,"projects":19145,"snapshots":15,"method":"Rolling-origin empirical survival predictions with direct-horizon, log-odds, Platt and isotonic challengers. Calibration is trained only on earlier out-of-time cohorts and tested on the latest fully observed cohort.","promotion_rule":"A challenger must preserve positive ranking, beat the historical base-rate Brier score by at least 2%, and have at least three rolling cohorts.","horizons":{"2":{"status":"evaluated","rolling_cohorts":8,"calibration_cohorts":["2020-09-28","2021-03-10","2021-12-02","2022-06-11","2023-03-13","2023-06-19","2023-12-16"],"test_cohort":"2024-03-27","logit_offset":-2.635,"platt_slope":0.15964919558294316,"platt_intercept":-3.867308508355364,"brier_skill_vs_base_rate":0.0010876121708167652,"promotion_decision":"ranking signal only","uncalibrated":{"rows":4019,"events":63,"event_rate":0.01567554117939786,"mean_prediction":0.08877618517740546,"brier_score":0.020670480399257323,"log_loss":0.1265799688064679,"roc_auc":0.766639382412891,"average_precision":0.04251251373181576},"direct_horizon_empirical":{"rows":4019,"events":63,"event_rate":0.01567554117939786,"mean_prediction":0.0889698885081872,"brier_score":0.020669935341498944,"log_loss":0.12696642214068554,"roc_auc":0.7659131397756271,"average_precision":0.04238126510880345},"calibrated":{"rows":4019,"events":63,"event_rate":0.01567554117939786,"mean_prediction":0.006981631243707835,"brier_score":0.015456689046471754,"log_loss":0.08162549513837157,"roc_auc":0.766639382412891,"average_precision":0.04251251373181576},"platt_calibrated":{"rows":4019,"events":63,"event_rate":0.01567554117939786,"mean_prediction":0.014143168894615792,"brier_score":0.015415661799251275,"log_loss":0.08018487127901865,"roc_auc":0.766639382412891,"average_precision":0.04251251373181576},"isotonic_calibrated":{"rows":4019,"events":63,"event_rate":0.01567554117939786,"mean_prediction":0.01656851601298548,"brier_score":0.015360029618765569,"log_loss":0.0780456103018331,"roc_auc":0.6360741971207087,"average_precision":0.0214937408658979},"historical_base_rate":{"rows":4019,"events":63,"event_rate":0.01567554117939786,"mean_prediction":0.01405451448040886,"brier_score":0.015432446315689696,"log_loss":0.08078556962008678,"roc_auc":0.5,"average_precision":0.01567554117939786},"calibration_bins":[{"mean_prediction":0.013266,"observed_rate":0.001681,"count":1190},{"mean_prediction":0.014348,"observed_rate":0.010147,"count":1971},{"mean_prediction":0.014555,"observed_rate":0.032389,"count":247},{"mean_prediction":0.015023,"observed_rate":0.05401,"count":611}],"skipped":[]},"3":{"status":"evaluated","rolling_cohorts":5,"calibration_cohorts":["2020-09-28","2021-03-10","2021-12-02","2022-06-11"],"test_cohort":"2023-03-13","logit_offset":-2.375,"platt_slope":0.014280723544821544,"platt_intercept":-3.6501121379141725,"brier_skill_vs_base_rate":0.0000763746130304499,"promotion_decision":"research only","uncalibrated":{"rows":4035,"events":77,"event_rate":0.019083023543990087,"mean_prediction":0.10551568180534353,"brier_score":0.02629149821504243,"log_loss":0.1509701753122203,"roc_auc":0.6931465452182987,"average_precision":0.04737286927802645},"direct_horizon_empirical":{"rows":4035,"events":77,"event_rate":0.019083023543990087,"mean_prediction":0.10524436876122503,"brier_score":0.026172413527142047,"log_loss":0.15077587862703665,"roc_auc":0.7092244541713971,"average_precision":0.04790533302422816},"calibrated":{"rows":4035,"events":77,"event_rate":0.019083023543990087,"mean_prediction":0.01090222121518472,"brier_score":0.018753153718334085,"log_loss":0.09547829633429104,"roc_auc":0.6931465452182987,"average_precision":0.04737286927802645},"platt_calibrated":{"rows":4035,"events":77,"event_rate":0.019083023543990087,"mean_prediction":0.024578367678521413,"brier_score":0.018747636475308298,"log_loss":0.09510031822512349,"roc_auc":0.6931465452182987,"average_precision":0.04737286927802645},"isotonic_calibrated":{"rows":4035,"events":77,"event_rate":0.019083023543990087,"mean_prediction":0.02846616311668358,"brier_score":0.018755163246356954,"log_loss":0.09495441789636647,"roc_auc":0.5794330732430784,"average_precision":0.022632347337575486},"historical_base_rate":{"rows":4035,"events":77,"event_rate":0.019083023543990087,"mean_prediction":0.02457908320019664,"brier_score":0.01874906842815418,"log_loss":0.09513029142134519,"roc_auc":0.5,"average_precision":0.019083023543990087},"calibration_bins":[{"mean_prediction":0.024414,"observed_rate":0.004667,"count":857},{"mean_prediction":0.024619,"observed_rate":0.012692,"count":2600},{"mean_prediction":0.024638,"observed_rate":0.069204,"count":578}],"skipped":[]},"5":{"status":"evaluated","rolling_cohorts":2,"calibration_cohorts":["2020-09-28"],"test_cohort":"2021-03-10","logit_offset":-2.15,"platt_slope":-0.5356237860120099,"platt_intercept":-3.885604666643357,"brier_skill_vs_base_rate":0.006156731763399481,"promotion_decision":"withheld","uncalibrated":{"rows":1222,"events":89,"event_rate":0.07283142389525368,"mean_prediction":0.09848845561173887,"brier_score":0.07118389621957369,"log_loss":0.27848518446492915,"roc_auc":0.5190852564038994,"average_precision":0.08290630052207487},"direct_horizon_empirical":{"rows":1222,"events":89,"event_rate":0.07283142389525368,"mean_prediction":0.0908869302642537,"brier_score":0.06939057755638242,"log_loss":0.271969258958336,"roc_auc":0.522526453583506,"average_precision":0.08358053636888839},"calibrated":{"rows":1222,"events":89,"event_rate":0.07283142389525368,"mean_prediction":0.013139214636113257,"brier_score":0.07102835957425792,"log_loss":0.34209370348638174,"roc_auc":0.5190852564038994,"average_precision":0.08290630052207487},"platt_calibrated":{"rows":1222,"events":89,"event_rate":0.07283142389525368,"mean_prediction":0.07393280077847475,"brier_score":0.06836423625456721,"log_loss":0.26793838098243145,"roc_auc":0.48091474359610065,"average_precision":0.0825208112608797},"isotonic_calibrated":{"rows":1222,"events":89,"event_rate":0.07283142389525368,"mean_prediction":0.01160060609372249,"brier_score":0.07124697006345569,"log_loss":0.352284792347582,"roc_auc":0.5191596338645537,"average_precision":0.0760102826071597},"historical_base_rate":{"rows":1222,"events":89,"event_rate":0.07283142389525368,"mean_prediction":0.0373245744998507,"brier_score":0.0687877439426314,"log_loss":0.27474578471830385,"roc_auc":0.5,"average_precision":0.07283142389525368},"calibration_bins":[{"mean_prediction":0.047372,"observed_rate":0.096413,"count":446},{"mean_prediction":0.060152,"observed_rate":0.014286,"count":70},{"mean_prediction":0.074949,"observed_rate":0.047297,"count":296},{"mean_prediction":0.089968,"observed_rate":0.090361,"count":166},{"mean_prediction":0.114293,"observed_rate":0.065574,"count":244}],"skipped":[]}},"overall_decision":"Release the two-year empirical score as a relative ranking signal only. Withhold literal project probabilities and the five-year output until a calibrated model clears the pre-declared release gate."}